Forty days of U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran paused for two weeks beginning on April 8 after a temporary ceasefire was issued. Brokered by Pakistan, the deal also allowed shipping across the Strait of Hormuz to continue. The truce will end on Wednesday, April 22.
President Donald Trump announced this as a truce between Lebanon and Israel; however, Israel has been fighting with Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon and not the country itself. Lebanon has relied on phased arms control and tacit understandings with Hezbollah for its own safety. The New York Times reports that there is no national consensus on how or even if Hezbollah should be disarmed.
On Friday, April 17, Trump announced that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports will remain and that attacks would resume if no agreement is reached before the end of the ceasefire. The following day, Iran reinstated control of the Strait of Hormuz and stated the strait would be closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade on Iranian ports.
During an interview, Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf said, “It is impossible for others to pass through the Strait of Hormuz while we cannot.”
After the announcement, two Indian-flagged ships were fired on mid-transit, forcing them to turn around on Saturday. Vessels have since paused in the Persian Gulf.
The closure of the Strait, which had been ongoing since Feb. 28 before the ceasefire, is Iran’s most powerful weapon, one which wielding could cripple the global economy. One-fifth of the world’s oil trade passes through it.
“Americans are risking the international community, risking the global economy through these, I can say, miscalculations,” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh said to AP News. He added that the U.S. is “risking the whole ceasefire package.”
Closure of the Strait is also strategic as it blocks supplies to U.S. military bases in the Gulf region.
The U.S. has since begun actively pursuing Iranian-flagged vessels as well as vessels suspected of providing material support to Iran. On Sunday, U.S. forces fired on an Iranian-owned container ship 30 miles off Iran’s coast. The U.S. Navy destroyer, which fired on the ship’s engine room, repeatedly warned the ship to stop over a six-hour period. The ship is now in U.S. custody, and it’s not been reported whether there were any casualties.
As war looms once more, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright reports gasoline prices have likely peaked in the U.S. but could remain elevated for months. In early March, Wright had reported that average gas prices would fall below $3 a gallon “within a week” of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Crude Oil prices continue to spike, remaining above $80 a barrel, with some jumping to $96 a barrel. Gas prices typically lag behind crude oil by a few days. The AA motor club reported that the national average price of gas had fallen to $4.05 on Sunday.
Ahead of peace talks scheduled for this week, Ghalibaf accused Trump of trying to force Iran’s surrender on X. “We’re offering a very fair and reasonable deal,” Trump wrote on social media. “I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant and every single Bridge in Iran.”
